Conditions For Hurricanes Are Becoming Ideal
No one is looking forward to another hurricane season after last year’s trifecta of storms, but we have to deal with it in the best way possible so that is what we’ll do!
Tropical Storm Dexter
Some think we have had a quiet season so far but today Tropical Storm Dexter, the 4th of this young season, formed in the Atlantic. Fortunately, it will not be a threat to the United States.
Early seasons tend to have tropical storms and not hurricanes but conditions are ripening for the start of the true hurricane season which extends from about now through early November.
High Sea Surface Temperatures
This year, sea surface temperatures are very warm especially in the Gulf and the Caribbean which means any storm that takes shape there could intensify rapidly. Rapid Intensification is a new reality and a very dangerous one! Storms forming near land can build from tropical storm to Category 5 force in a day or so. In these cases, warnings won’t allow much time to prepare.
Gulf sea surface temperatures are near 90°F right now and these super-warm waters are holding the massive heat content that hurricanes love.
Saharan Dust
Heavy dust that swept into the Atlantic from the Sahara Desert, so common in the early season, is showing signs of dissipating. Dust holds down hurricane development. Once it clears…. Watch Out!
A timely image from the GOES-R Satellite shows both clouds and dust. It’s very interesting!
That means that any storm that takes shape there could intensify rapidly. Rapid Intensification is a new reality and a very dangerous one! Storms forming near land can build from tropical storm to Category 5 force in a day or so. In these cases, warnings won’t allow much time to prepare.
Heavy dust is shown in the color magenta. I circled an area of very heavy dust so you can get familiar with seeing the variations across the tropical Atlantic.
Active Development Areas
The red areas in the GOES image are heavy clouds. Notice that Tropical Storm Dexter is located well off the mid-Atlantic coast. Now look at the area west of Africa that has a good chance to form into another named storm later this week. If it does it will be named Erin as shown on the image.
Two cloud systems on either side of the white “star” symbol may join forces late this week and provide a 3rd potential area for storm formation. Finally, in the central part of Africa, to the east of the white line labelled “Big Wave,” is a large system that will move into the tropical Atlantic in the days ahead. I am watching this one very closely!
Hopefully you understand better now that the conditions the CAC has been forecasting for another active hurricane season are coming together.
Below is the National Hurricane Center graphic description of what I just told you without comment on the wave over central Africa.
National Hurricane Center chart showing current and expected development areas
Orange areas in the above image indicate a good chance for future development while yellow areas have some chance but only about 20%. Red is reserved for named systems of nearly certain near-term development.
Below is the National Hurricane Center movement and intensity forecast for Tropical Storm Dexter as it moves away from the US.
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