The hurricane season is not random.
It is driven by a set of physical signals already developing across the oceans and atmosphere.
On the morning of April 23, I will take the stage at Selby Auditorium on the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus to unveil the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.
For decades, I have studied the storms that threaten the Suncoast and Tampa Bay. My approach is different from most seasonal outlooks. Instead of relying on a single model or trend, this forecast is built from eight physical signals that together reveal what the Atlantic is primed to produce.
While the forecast is national in scope, it is specifically focused on what those conditions could mean for the Suncoast.
Before I reveal the numbers on April 23, the bigger story is this:
The baseline has changed.
A new era of hurricane activity
If you compare the 25-year period from 1974 to 1999 with the era we are living in today, the Atlantic basin is no longer behaving the way it once did.
Storm activity has increased across nearly every meaningful category:
• Named tropical storms are up more than 50 percent
• Hurricanes have increased by nearly 30 percent
• Major hurricanes are up more than 50 percent
• Rapid intensification events have increased by about 70 percent
• Category 4 hurricanes are up more than 60 percent
• Category 5 storms have increased by roughly 150 percent
That increase in Category 5 storms is not a small shift.
But the more important change is the rise in rapid intensification. These are storms that strengthen dramatically in a short period of time, sometimes evolving from a tropical storm to a major hurricane in less than 24 hours.
These are the storms that have caught communities off guard in recent years, including Michael, Ida, and Otis.
They are becoming more common.
And they are reducing the amount of time available to prepare.
No single factor explains what is happening in the Atlantic
Hurricane activity is shaped by a combination of ocean conditions, atmospheric patterns, and large-scale climate signals. I track these signals closely and use them to build an integrated picture of what a season is likely to produce.
My forecast is based on eight key factors:
• Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic
• Ocean heat content, including the Gulf Loop Current
• The El Niño and La Niña cycle
• Temperatures in the upper atmosphere
• African dust and monsoon moisture patterns
• The position and strength of the Azores-Bermuda High
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation, which pulses storm activity around the globe
• Measured wind shear in the Main Development Region
Each factor tells part of the story.
Some determine whether storms form at all.
Others determine whether they survive and intensify.
And some influence where those storms ultimately track.
In recent years, one of the most important changes has been how these factors interact. Patterns that once moved together are now diverging in ways that can significantly influence storm behavior.
The challenge for coastal communities
For communities along the Gulf Coast, including Sarasota and Manatee counties, these changes are not theoretical.
They affect how quickly storms can strengthen, how much time residents have to prepare, and the overall risk each hurricane season brings.
The increase in rapid intensification alone has shortened the window between a manageable storm and a dangerous one.
That means preparation decisions need to happen earlier, and they need to be based on better information.
What are the signals saying for 2026?
That is the question many people are already asking.
It is not something that can be answered from headlines or early speculation.
It requires analyzing the full set of physical signals that drive hurricane activity.
I have completed that analysis.
And I will present it on April 23.
Be in the room for the forecast
On Thursday, April 23, I will present the 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast Day at the Climate Adaptation Center’s Hurricane Season Forecast Day, held at the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus.
During this event, I will walk through:
• The official 2026 hurricane season forecast
• The science behind the forecast
• What the outlook could mean specifically for the Suncoast
This is the only hurricane forecast that focuses directly on potential impacts to this region, not just the Atlantic basin as a whole.
The event will be emceed by Rob Rominiecki and will bring together scientists, engineers, community leaders, and residents who want to better understand what may be ahead.
Hurricane season begins June 1.
The smartest preparation begins before that.
🎟 Reserve your seat here.