El Niño tried to shut this hurricane season down — and still, the Gulf is about to deliver its first hurricane. Tropical Storm Isaias in the southwestern Gulf formed roughly where Milton did two years ago. Fittingly, the dreaded “I” storm — ask Florida about Irma, Ian, and Idalia.
It’s likely to intensify quickly, approaching Category 3 strength as it moves north, before weakening ahead of landfall near Pensacola late Friday night or early Saturday morning — well west of the Suncoast. But it’s a rainmaker, so we’ll watch for freshwater flooding here, and any eastward wobble brings surge into play for our barrier islands. Idalia taught us that. If you’re on the northern Gulf Coast, have your hurricane plan ready.
Back in April, the CAC called for 12 named storms — and with Isaias the ninth named storm, that forecast remains in reach.
“Just” tropical storms
Four of this season’s storms formed in the Gulf — Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, and now Isaias. Each “just” a tropical storm. Together: well over a billion dollars in damage, and four deaths from Arthur’s flooding. That’s what November 12th is about: from climate risk to climate resilience.
In a warmer world, tropical storms hold more water — flooding hits harder than 25 or 50 years ago. And with seas rising faster than ever, even a minor storm can drive a dangerous surge. Tropical storms aren’t benign anymore.
Times have changed — and we can too
That’s why the CAC is proposing a Living Laboratory for Coastal Resilience along ten miles of Sarasota Bay. Times have changed — and we can too.
After Arthur, Bertha, and Edouard — do “just a tropical storm” warnings still sound minor to you?
The Bunting Brief is Bob Bunting’s short-form series on the weather and climate forces shaping Florida’s Gulf Coast.
🎟️ Join us November 12 — From Climate Risk to Climate Resilience, Sarasota. Get tickets here.
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