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Summer of 2023 was Earth’s hottest since global records began in 1880, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies.

Not only was it historically hot globally, ​many Florida cities also rewrote their summer heat record books in 2023, including Key West, Miami, Pensacola and Sarasota. While Tampa fell just short of their record summer, they’ve have had their four hottest summers all within the past four years.

Plus, many weather stations along the west coast of Florida recorded their driest year on record.

The record-setting summer of 2023 continued a long-term trend of warming. So, it may come to no surprise that summer 2024 is expected to be, well, very hot!

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its updated seasonal outlooks (see graphic above) on Thursday, which showed the probability of regions seeing above-normal, near-normal, and below-normal temperatures and precipitation. That includes the period of meteorological summer which begins on June 1 and stretches to Aug. 31.

NOAA’s rainfall outlook (see graphic below) for June, July and August shows most states in the eastern U.S. will see above normal precipitation. However, due to the growing emergence of a La Niña over the Pacific, the precipitation outlook is not good for areas of the wester U.S. likely seeing below-average rainfall.

Will Summer 2024 be hotter than the record-setting summer of last year? It’s too early to say.

However, 3+ months into 2024, we’re already looking at another potentially record-setting hot year. January, February and March made it ten months in a row that global average temperatures were the hottest month on record.

We haven’t had a March where global temperatures were cooler than average since 1976.

With record temperatures to start the year, it’s virtually certain 2024 will be one of the world’s top five warmest years on record globally. In fact, NOAA already gives a 55% chance that 2024 will be the warmest year in the 175-year record.

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