🎟️ Nov 12 — From Climate Risk to Climate Resilience, right here in Sarasota:
Friday night, Hurricane Isaias came ashore near Destin as a Category 2 with 105-mile-an-hour winds — the forecast I published Wednesday morning, about 57 hours before landfall: briefly a major hurricane (it peaked at 120 mph Friday morning), then ashore as a strong Cat 2.
The highest sustained wind measured on land was 91 mph at Santa Rosa Sound, with a gust to 117. Hurricanes are rated on sustained winds, not gusts, so the landfall verdict is solid: Category 2. Nearly 900,000 customers lost power across Florida, Alabama, and Georgia at the peak, with a Flash Flood Emergency in Destin and Fort Walton Beach as rain fell up to 4.5 inches an hour.
The Hurricane Center’s 5 AM forecast that morning topped out at 110 mph with no major hurricane in it, and their forecasters are the finest in the world. But forecasting takes three things: technology, education, and experience, and experience can’t be downloaded. Forecasting was always my greatest strength, and I was honored with three National Weather Service awards for severe weather forecasting. That morning, experience said this storm had a little more in it.
The forecast gave the Panhandle two and a half days — 57 hours to finish preparations, heed local officials, and get out of harm’s way. The warning worked. And that’s the deeper point: in a Gulf that guarantees every storm hits land somewhere, lead time is everything. The question is what we build with it.
Because the numbers are still the numbers: ten major hurricanes have struck the Gulf Coast since 2017, and Isaias became the eleventh storm to reach major strength before coming ashore. Nothing like it since hurricane records began.
On November 12th at Selby Auditorium, the CAC unveils the Living Laboratory for Coastal Resilience — ten miles of Sarasota Bay as a working prototype for every coastal community facing what’s coming. Getting serious about resilience, not just saying the words.
When a forecast gives you 57 hours, what does “being ready” actually look like to you?
🎟️ Get your ticket while they last — General $109 / Students $55 by clicking here.
or get tickets by clicking “Tickets” at the top of this page.