Urgent Warnings from a Warming World

By Bob Bunting, CAC, CEO & Scientist

The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) “State of the Climate in 2024” report, compiled by over 590 scientists from more than 60 countries, delivers a sobering update: Earth is warming at a breakneck speed, with over 99% certainty (as stated by IPCC assessments in the report) that human actions—such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation—are the primary driver. Human-driven warming is indisputable based on current evidence.

This rapid change outpaces natural shifts in Earth’s ancient history, like the gradual warming after ice ages, and poses real threats to human life, from food shortages to unlivable heat. Drawing from the report’s 20 key findings, this article breaks them down into simple themes for a smart audience. We’ll highlight the most critical points with images and graphics from the report and related sources, explaining why they matter. Plus, we’ll dive into why thawing permafrost could be a dangerous “tipping point” that speeds up even more warming.

The Climate Adaptation Center (CAC), a non-profit focused on bridging climate science and practical solutions, especially for Florida’s vulnerabilities like sea-level rise and extreme weather, has been highlighting many of these issues in their CAC Climate Conferences. Presentations from these events, available on the CAC’s YouTube channel (link), discuss topics like adaptation strategies for rising temperatures, permafrost thaw risks, and tipping points such as AMOC disruption—echoing the BAMS findings and urging immediate action for resilient communities.

Skyrocketing Temperatures: Records Shattered Worldwide

Several standout findings underscore how heat is ramping up faster than in past climates, threatening daily life with more extreme weather. In 2024, Earth was approximately 1.6°C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900), aligning with estimates from datasets like Berkeley Earth (1.62°C).

• Record-High Global Surface Temperatures: 2024 was the warmest year on record for the second year running, with temperatures 0.63°C to 0.72°C above the 1991–2020 average—likely hotter than any period since the last warm era 125,000 years ago. This speed beats slow natural warm-ups in history, risking unlivable regions and crop failures.
• Warmest Decade on Record: 2015–2024 was the hottest 10 years ever, 1.46°C–1.62°C above pre-industrial levels, outstripping stable periods in Earth’s recent geological past and challenging human societies with disrupted weather patterns.
• Regional Temperature Records Broken: Continents like North America, Europe, Africa, and Oceania hit new highs, warming faster than in the last 2,000 years based on tree rings and ice cores—heightening risks like heat-related illnesses.

Image: This graph from Berkeley Earth shows global average temperature anomalies from 1850 to 2024, relative to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. It features blue dots for annual values with error bars, and a red smoothing line highlighting the upward trend, culminating at about 1.62°C in 2024—illustrating the sharp rise since the Industrial Revolution driven by human emissions. Source: Berkeley Earth.

 

• Record Ocean Heat Content: Oceans absorbed record heat, like a constant 1.5 watts per square meter—unmatched in ancient ocean records from the last ice age, fueling stronger storms and rising seas that endanger coastal homes.
• Persistent Marine Heatwaves: 91% of oceans faced heatwaves averaging 100 days, nearly double past records—mirroring sudden ocean changes in mass extinctions but faster, harming fish stocks vital for billions.

 

 Image: This “warming stripes” graphic visualizes Earth’s rising temperatures year by year, with 2024 adding the darkest red stripe yet symbolizing the hottest on record. Each stripe represents a year’s average temperature, turning from blue (cooler) to red (hotter), highlighting the rapid shift driven by human emissions.

 

Image: A line graph showing the 12-month running average of global temperatures ticking upward through 2024, illustrating the relentless rise beyond historical norms.

Vanishing Ice: Frozen Areas Thawing at Alarming Speeds

These cryosphere changes (Earth’s icy parts) are accelerating, with some as potential tipping points that could lock in more warming.

• Glacier Mass Loss and Extinctions: All 58 monitored glaciers shrank, with the biggest average loss since 1970, and one more declared extinct—faster than post-Little Ice Age melts around 1850, reducing water for rivers and farms.

Image: Figure from the BAMS report showing yearly glacier ice loss (red bars) and cumulative total (black dots) since 1970. 2024’s record -1.30 meters water equivalent loss marks the 37th straight year of shrinking, with recent years the worst—emphasizing irreversible ice retreat. 

In Figure 2.19 from the BAMS State of the Climate in 2024 report, “m w.e.” stands for meters of water equivalent. This is a standard unit used in glaciology to measure the amount of ice loss or gain in glaciers. It represents the depth of water that would result if the ice were completely melted and spread evenly across the glacier’s surface.  Imagine a glacier’s ice melting entirely into water. If you poured that water back onto the glacier’s area, the depth of that water layer (in meters) is the “water equivalent.”

In the context of Figure 2.19, the red bars show the annual ice loss for 2024 as -1.30 m w.e., meaning glaciers lost an average equivalent of 1.3 meters of water depth across their surfaces—the largest loss since records began in 1970.

The negative value indicates ice loss (melting or sublimation), while a positive value would mean ice gain (from snowfall, for example).

This metric is critical because it quantifies how much glaciers are shrinking, which affects freshwater supplies for rivers and communities, and contributes to sea-level rise. The record -1.30 m w.e. in 2024 underscores the accelerating impact of human-driven warming, as discussed in the article, compared to slower natural ice retreats in Earth’s history.

Permafrost Thawing Acceleration: Arctic permafrost hit record warms, thawing deeper at 1°C per decade—unseen in the last 2.6 million years.  Permafrost locks away massive amounts of methane (CH4), a gas 80 times more potent than CO2 over 20 years. As it thaws, CH4 bubbles out, trapping more heat and speeding global warming. This could hasten Greenland’s ice melt by warming nearby air and oceans, adding to sea-level rise. Worse, it might disrupt the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, like the Gulf Stream), a key ocean current that keeps Europe mild—if it slows, it could trigger drastic weather shifts, like colder winters in the North Atlantic, in a self-reinforcing loop hard to reverse. CAC conference presentations on their YouTube channel often reference these risks, stressing Florida’s vulnerability to related sea-level changes from ice melt.  Dr. Stuart Waterman, a CAC scientist, wrote these two articles that appear on the CAC website, (article 1 and article 2).

Image: This graph from the 2024 Arctic Report Card shows mean annual ground temperatures in Alaskan permafrost sites over recent decades, with lines for different locations trending upward—highlighting warming rates of 0.3–0.7°C per decade in colder areas, which accelerates thaw and methane release. Source: NOAA Arctic Report Card.

• Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Seventh-lowest extent, with thick old ice vanishing—matching the rapid deglaciations in history but human-accelerated, risking altered weather and coastal erosion.
• Antarctic Sea Ice Anomalies: Near-record lows, with 125 billion tons of ice sheet loss—diverging from past stability, contributing to seas rising at Holocene-unmatched rates, threatening island nations.
• Sea-Level Rise Acceleration: Up 4.6 mm in 2024 to 105.8 mm since 1993—faster than any in the last 11,700 years, driven by melt and expansion, potentially flooding cities.

Water and Weather Extremes: A More Volatile World

Warmer air supercharges moisture, leading to wild swings that echo but exceed past climate flips.

• Increased Humid-Heat Extremes: Record frequency of muggy-hot days, second-highest intensity—nearing survival limits in places like India, beyond historical wet-bulb dangers.

 

Image: Charts and map from the report showing 2024’s record atmospheric moisture and humid-heat days, making heat deadlier by hindering sweat evaporation—especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Source: BAMS State of the Climate 2024 (via @PCarterClimate on X).

• Global Precipitation Extremes: Third-wettest year since 1983, with record land downpours—intensifying like physics predicts, overwhelming infrastructure faster than in ancient wet periods.
• Drought Severity Reduction but Persistence: Eased from 2023 but ongoing in Amazon/Africa—mirroring arid times 1,000 years ago but quicker, sparking water wars.
• ENSO Transition and Impacts: El Niño faded, worsening some droughts—layered on human warming, amplifying extremes beyond past cycles.

Air Quality and Feedback: Gases and Fires Fueling the Fire

Human emissions are the core issue, creating loops that worsen everything.

• Record Greenhouse Gas Concentrations: CO2 at 422.8 ppm (52% above pre-industrial), with record rise—unseen in 800,000 years of ice data, directly causing the rush toward tipping points.
• Wildfire Emissions Surge: Second-highest CO and haziest air since 2019 from blazes in South America/Canada/Arctic—rivaling ancient fire events but faster, degrading health.

Image: Graph highlighting 2024’s near-record wildfire carbon emissions, second only to 2023, with Amazon and Africa hotspots—showing how warming dries fuels for more fires. Source: BAMS State of the Climate 2024 (via @PCarterClimate on X).

• Vegetation and Albedo Changes: Earlier plant growth darkened Earth, absorbing more heat—faster than post-ice age shifts, amplifying warming.
• Tropical Cyclone Activity: Below average globally but Atlantic hyperactive—boosted by hot oceans, posing greater threats than pre-industrial storms.
• Extreme Weather Events Proliferation: Deadly hits like Hurricane Helene (219 deaths) and floods (>200 in Brazil/Spain)—beyond paleoclimate records, straining resilience.
• Stratospheric Ozone Recovery: Ozone improved, a success from global pacts—contrasting warming but interactable with it for UV risks.

Ozone Recovery: A Rare Win for Global Cooperation

One bright spot in the BAMS State of the Climate in 2024 report is the continued recovery of Earth’s ozone layer, a protective shield in the upper atmosphere that blocks harmful ultraviolet (UV) rays from the sun. Did you know the thickness of the ozone if it were concentrated would be about the thickness of a dime? Without it human life would not exist!

Thanks to global efforts starting with the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which banned chemicals like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that were destroying ozone, levels of these harmful substances kept dropping in 2024. The report notes that stratospheric ozone levels were well above the 1998–2008 average, especially –in the Northern Hemisphere, and the Antarctic ozone hole was among the least severe on record.  Yours truly, worked with the founder of Hewlitt-Packert, Mr. William Hewlitt and then President, John Young.  Together with a group of HP engineers and scientist from The National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR, a one-of-a-kind spectrometers was built and gifted to NCAR by the Hewlitt Foundation.  That instrument was key to verifying the CFCs that were destroying the Ozone Hole.  In record time the countries of the UN approved the Montreal Protocol. Today we have a healing Ozone Hole!  

This success stands out against the backdrop of rapid warming. Unlike the fast-paced climate changes outstripping ancient shifts, ozone recovery shows we can tackle global problems when nations work together. However, warming can complicate this win—rising temperatures and greenhouse gases might interact with ozone chemistry, potentially affecting UV exposure for people and ecosystems. The Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) has highlighted this in their YouTube conference videos (link), noting how such interactions could impact Florida’s environment, where strong sunlight already poses risks.

The Big Picture: Lessons from History for Our Future

These findings show human-induced warming (>99% probability) is pushing Earth past safe bounds, rivaling abrupt ancient shifts that caused extinctions. Permafrost thaw exemplifies one of several tipping points that could cascade: more CH4 means hotter air, faster Greenland melt, higher seas, and disruption of our oceans conveyor belt that recirculates excess heat in the tropics to the cooler norther latitudes —potentially cooling parts of Europe while heating elsewhere. Unlike slow past changes, this speed leaves little adaptation time, risking billions through hunger, migration, and conflict. CAC’s conference videos on YouTube delve into these interconnections, offering Florida-specific adaptation insights that align with global calls for action.

Yet, ozone success proves cooperation works!  Banning the CFCs responsible for the Ozone Hole was a. successful Climate Adaptation. We need many more!

As you will see in our upcoming conference on Climate & Biodiversity: The Epic Story of Climate & Biodiversity: From Ancient Earth to 2200. Buy Ticket here.