As June comes to a close, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet, consistent with the below-normal outlook shared by our Chief Scientist, Bob Bunting, back in April.
On April 23, 2026, at the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus, Bob Bunting, CAC CEO, presented his annual hurricane season forecast, highlighting the strong likelihood of a quieter-than-normal season due to the developing El Niño pattern. You can watch his entire season forecast here.
So far, that forecast has held true.
The Atlantic has produced only one named storm, Tropical Storm Arthur. While Arthur brought heavy rainfall and localized flooding to portions of the Gulf Coast before quickly dissipating, the basin has otherwise remained largely inactive.
July: A historically quiet but important month
July has traditionally been one of the quieter months of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, the month produces only one to two named storms, while the climatological peak of hurricane activity does not arrive until mid-September. Historically, most tropical activity occurs between August and October.
For Southwest Florida’s Suncoast, however, a quiet July is not a reason to let your guard down. Instead, it provides valuable time to review hurricane plans and prepare before the busiest part of the season arrives.
Even relatively weak systems like Arthur remind us that warm Gulf waters can produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As the climate warms, heavier rainfall rates and higher baseline sea levels continue to increase flooding risks from tropical systems of all strengths.
Bob Bunting has emphasized that while El Niño is expected to reduce the overall number of storms this season, it does not eliminate the possibility of a significant hurricane affecting Florida. It only takes one well-placed storm to define an entire season, making preparation just as important during quieter years.
Looking ahead with local expertise
At the Climate Adaptation Center, we continue monitoring conditions through the lens of Southwest Florida’s unique risks.
Bob Bunting’s early-season outlook, built on decades of hurricane research and forecasting experience, provides an important foundation as we move into the heart of hurricane season.
Hurricane season can be confusing
National forecasts, social media rumors, computer model graphics, and breaking news alerts often create more questions than answers.
That’s why thousands of Southwest Florida residents receive free hurricane updates from the Climate Adaptation Center.
Local information that matters
When a storm threatens Florida, most coverage focuses on the entire state.
Residents of Sarasota, Bradenton, Venice, North Port, Lakewood Ranch, Longboat Key, and surrounding communities need answers closer to home.
What are the chances our area will be impacted?
When could conditions begin changing?
What should families be doing now?
Our updates focus on the Suncoast and what matters most to local residents.
Insights from hurricane experts
Chief Scientist Bob Bunting is one of the nation’s leading hurricane experts and has spent decades studying tropical weather and hurricane risk.
As a longtime television meteorologist, I focus on breaking down complex weather information into practical guidance that families can use to make informed decisions.
Dr. Stu Waterman monitors ocean temperatures, currents, and climate patterns that influence tropical development and hurricane tracks.
Together, they provide science-based analysis tailored specifically for Southwest Florida.
Less hype. More understanding.
Not every tropical disturbance becomes a disaster.
Our goal is to help you understand what is happening, what could happen next, and what it means for our region.
That means timely, science-based information without unnecessary hype.
Subscribers receive:
- Hurricane season outlooks
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- Updates from Bob Bunting, Ric Kearbey, and Dr. Stu Waterman
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Whether you’re a year-round resident, seasonal visitor, business owner, or community leader, these updates can help you stay informed throughout hurricane season.
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