Weather and climate forecasting has become incredibly accurate. Four days before landfall, my Sarasota Magazine forecast said Milton would become a major hurricane and take a direct hit at the Suncoast on Wednesday. Wednesday night, the eye crossed Siesta Key. And my Sarasota Magazine forecast for Hurricane Isaias verified almost to the hour: briefly a Category 3, ashore as a strong Category 2 near Destin at 105 miles an hour.
So we can predict the storm. But we’re living in a warming climate, warming faster than ever before, and a perfect forecast is not enough, because there’s a difference between a hazard and a disaster. Understanding that difference is how we save lives and property.
A hazard is the physical event. The hurricane, the flood, the storm surge. A disaster is what happens when that hazard runs into a community that isn’t built for it. The hazard is nature. The disaster is on us.
The hazards are going to keep coming, and as the climate warms, some will get worse: more damaging hurricanes, more flooding, more surge. But a hazard does not have to become a disaster. With the right design, real implementation, testing, measurement, and prediction at the local level, street by street, fewer hazards will turn into disasters. That is what resilience actually is. And that is exactly why we’re building the Living Laboratory for Coastal Resilience, ten miles of Sarasota shoreline, measuring what’s really happening and turning it into designs and forecasts that keep our community safe.
On November 12, there’s going to be a lot of brain power in the room at Selby Auditorium. We hope to add yours. Get your tickets now, because less than 50 tickets remain.
The Bunting Brief is Bob Bunting’s short-form series on the weather and climate forces shaping Florida’s Gulf Coast.
Join us November 12: From Climate Risk to Climate Resilience, Sarasota. Get tickets here.
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