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New Tropical System Should Become a Named Storm Tomorrow

potential tropical storm Nicole

Image source: NOAA

3:40 pm, Sunday, November 6th, 2022

The large mass of clouds in the western Atlantic Ocean is slowly becoming better organized.  Note the red X on the NOAA satellite image captured late Sunday.  It’s pretty easy to see a center forming around that X.  

With the sea surface temperatures much higher than normal, I expect this mass of clouds to become named storm “Nicole” by tomorrow.

What happens next will be driven by a blocking high pressure ridge to the north that will be getting stronger too. That high pressure system will drive the storm toward the southeast Florida coastline instead of having it move north or northeast off the US coastline as we would usually expect.

Atmospheric and ocean temperatures are favorable for development of this system. The rate of development will be key. It looks to me like the storm will become a hurricane before it reaches the southeast coast of Florida.

There is a chance for rapid development before the storm arrives in Florida. I will talk about this possibility in tomorrow’s update, so stay tuned!

The storm is likely to move across Florida and gradually turn to the north. It will impact much of the state, starting in the southeast on Wednesday and reaching northern Florida by Friday.

For the Suncoast, it is probable that we will experience gale force winds and heavy flooding rains at a minimum. More serious impacts are possible, so this is the time to stay vigilant.

So here we go again!  This developing storm is covering a large area. The current mix of atmospheric and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic can certainly support Category 1-3 hurricanes.

So the potential is there and now you know.  I’ll be on it for you.

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