Hurricane Francine formed in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Monday, breaking a 5-week lull in the hurricane season since Hurricane Ernesto. Thankfully, Florida is not facing another round of destructive tropical storms and hurricanes intensified by climate warming. Since 2017, we have experienced the wrath of Irma, Ian, and Idalia, and we will not forget the unnamed tropical storm on June 11 or the recent damage from Hurricane Debby.
The 2024 Hurricane Season forecasts created a unanimous prediction of a bad hurricane season from the CAC, CSU and NOAA. At the halfway point six storms have formed. Each one has been impressive in some aspect, and everyone has hit land! Hurricane Francine will continue this string of hits, this time along the Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines.
Francine, like many recent storms, may undergo rapid intensification. When it reaches the coastline, the eye will likely pass over Louisiana, potentially as a high-intensity Category 2 storm, with an outside chance of becoming a Category 3 within the next 24 hours.
Some areas are expected to receive over a foot of rain, with flooding from 5 to 10 feet of storm surge. Heavy rains and surges will combine, creating another major impact on a coastline already ravaged by seven storms since 2017.
Here is the latest information on Francine as of this morning.
Now, a few words on the lull experienced since Hurricane Ernesto
The three main predictors of an active hurricane season are warm ocean temperatures, abundant moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and weak vertical wind shear (often seen during La Niña conditions).
In our Hurricane Season Forecast on April 4, after detailing the ideal conditions (as outlined here), I noted two factors that could potentially reduce the number of storms this season. They were:
Saharan Dust
All the ingredients are in place for a big hurricane season in 2024. But what could reduce the threat? One of the hardest things to predict is how much dust will blow out of the Sahara Desert into the Atlantic. In previous years, even last year, this dry air has kept storms at bay for weeks. If that happens again, it could help suppress storm activity this season.
African Easterly Waves
These are typically enhanced clusters of showers that move eastward across the southern part of central Africa, eventually emerging into the Atlantic Ocean near the Cape Verde Islands. During La Niña conditions, these waves tend to be less frequent. When that occurs, hurricane formation off the coast of Africa decreases, while more storms form further west—near the West Indies, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico tends to increase. That is what I expect to happen in this hurricane season.
Indeed, that is exactly what has occurred, with a very strong African Monsoon becoming the third factor. No doubt you’ve heard about the intense flooding and storms in the Sahara. Because the monsoon shifted so far north, the easterly waves also moved north, where they entered the Atlantic into cooler waters.
These three factors would have suppressed a typical hurricane season, but not this one. Our 2024 storms formed further west, with most developing in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, just as the CAC predicted.
Hurricane Beryl formed in June, becoming the earliest Category 5 storm ever recorded in the Atlantic, and it devastated the power grid in Houston. Hurricane Debby was enormous in size, dumping up to 20 inches of rain in Florida and causing havoc all the way to Canada, resulting in over $15 billion in property damage.
As we now continue through peak hurricane season, here’s what I can share about the remainder of the season: Dust in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic and Caribbean is diminishing, and the tropics are becoming more active. Record sea surface temperatures and the emerging La Niña pattern suggest that the second half of the season will likely be active.
Francine, our fourth hurricane, may become the second major storm of the season before making landfall tomorrow. We’ll know more in the next 24 hours. Additionally, there are two other systems between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands that have a good chance of becoming named storms in the next week. If they do, they will be named Gordon and Helena. And then, of course, there’s the dreaded ‘I’ storm — this year, it’s Isaac!
For those of us on Florida’s west coast, September and October are critical months as storms shift from forming off the coast of Africa to developing in the western Caribbean.
On the Suncoast, we’ve seen more than our share of water, with over 50 inches of rain in Sarasota over the past three months — a record!
In fact, we’ve experienced several record-breaking events on the Suncoast in just the last two years:
- Hurricane Ian: A 500-year inland flood and historic storm surge in Ft. Myers
- Hurricane Idalia: Significant saltwater storm surges from Venice to Tampa
- Unnamed Tropical System (June 11): A thousand-year rain event for Sarasota
- Hurricane Debby: A 200-year freshwater flood event
These climate-induced events have taken a devastating toll, claiming scores of lives and causing hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage.
We must remember that it’s not the number of storms that matters, but the impact of each one.
As we’ve seen, it only takes one major storm to make a significant difference.
Given the recent lull, we now anticipate a total of 12–14 named storms, with 7–8 hurricanes and 4–5 major hurricanes.
The welcome break appears to be over and it’s time to pay attention again.
The CAC will keep you posted as to what is happening and why and give some local interpretation should a storm visit us sometime before the season ends.
In the meantime, join us at the CAC’s 4th Florida Climate Conference: Climate and Human Health. We’ll feature a star-studded lineup of speakers rarely seen on the Suncoast. The conference will take place at the new Atala Ballroom at USF-SM on Thursday and Friday, November 14–15. Get your tickets and view the program HERE.
CAC commitment
By recognizing these threats and taking decisive action, we can work together towards our region for future generations while protecting our Florida way of life. The CAC is committed to this mission and helping our community with adaptation education and strategies and working with our leaders to adapt to our warming climate.
You can support us in helping us continue to this work by making a donation or becoming a member today.
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